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Critical Path, PERT, and Managing Time Under Uncertainty

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(@akshatha)
Posts: 39
Estimable Member
Topic starter
 

Time Management is about developing a schedule that reflects real-world complexities and uncertainty. Tools such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) provide project managers with structured yet flexible approaches to scheduling and planning.

The Critical Path Method identifies the longest stretch of dependent tasks and determines the minimum time needed to complete the project. This helps project managers pinpoint where delays will have the greatest impact. However, this assumes a single most likely duration for each task. In contrast, PERT accounts for uncertainty by calculating time using three estimates: optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely. This is particularly valuable in medical device development, where experimental procedures, testing outcomes, or regulatory reviews can be unpredictable. Compression methods like crashing and fast tracking. These methods are frequently employed in response to executive pressure but can lead to increased costs or reduced quality. Therefore, it’s essential to carefully assess and clearly communicate the associated trade-offs.

Balancing time, cost, and quality is never easy, especially in regulated industries. A flexible but data-driven scheduling approach can mean the difference between meeting product launch dates or facing costly delays.

How can project managers effectively communicate the trade-offs between time compression (e.g., crashing or fast tracking) and potential risks to quality or cost especially when under pressure from executives to accelerate timelines?



 
Posted : 14/04/2025 12:17 pm
(@ms3548)
Posts: 35
Eminent Member
 

Project managers can effectively communicate the trade-offs between time compression methods like crashing or fast tracking and the associated risks to quality or cost by using data-driven visual aids and clear, concise language. For instance, presenting a side-by-side comparison of project timelines with and without compression, along with the potential impacts on budget and quality, can make the trade-offs more tangible. Additionally, leveraging historical data from past projects to illustrate the consequences of similar decisions can provide executives with a realistic perspective. It's also crucial to frame the discussion around the project's overall objectives, emphasizing how quality compromises or cost overruns could affect long-term success. Open-ended questions such as, "What are the potential long-term impacts on our brand reputation if we compromise on quality?" can further engage executives in a meaningful dialogue about the broader implications of their decisions. How have you seen effective communication strategies impact project outcomes in your experience?

 
Posted : 14/04/2025 2:29 pm
(@mh746)
Posts: 57
Trusted Member
 

Effectively communicating the trade-offs between time compression methods like crashing and fast tracking, and the risks they pose to cost and qualit, requires project managers to be both strategic and practical in their communication approach.

One clear example comes from the development of ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the urgency of the situation, several companies, including car manufacturers like General Motors, were tasked with producing ventilators quickly. These companies had to fast track production by overlapping design and manufacturing phases. While this allowed them to deliver units rapidly, the speed sometimes came at the expense of early testing and process optimization. In a few instances, design flaws were discovered only after distribution began, resulting in modifications, delays, and negative media attention. This shows how compressing timelines without fully evaluating trade-offs can compromise both product quality and public trust.

To communicate these trade-offs effectively to executives under pressure, project managers should:

  1. Use Visual Scenarios: Create clear visuals like Gantt charts, network diagrams, or side-by-side timelines that compare outcomes with and without time compression. This makes risks more tangible.

  2. Leverage Data: Use historical project data or case studies to demonstrate how similar decisions in the past led to increased costs or quality failures. This gives executives real-world context.

  3. Present a Risk Matrix: Show how fast-tracking or crashing increases specific risks, such as rework, regulatory setbacks, or staff burnout, and estimate their potential impact.

  4. Frame the Conversation Around Business Goals: For example, rather than saying "we may miss testing," explain how reduced testing could lead to regulatory delays, which in turn could delay product launch and reduce revenue.

  5. Offer Alternatives: Propose middle-ground solutions, perhaps partial fast tracking with built-in quality checkpoints or additional staffing to mitigate delays without sacrificing standards.

Ultimately, project managers must advocate for the project's long-term success, not just short-term milestones. By grounding their arguments in evidence and aligning them with the organization's larger goals, they can lead constructive discussions, even under executive pressure, and guide teams to make informed, balanced decisions.

reference:

https://www.medtechdive.com/news/an-insiders-look-at-how-gm-ventec-ramped-up-ventilator-production-amid-co/581461/

 
Posted : 15/04/2025 2:50 pm
 pz98
(@pz98)
Posts: 37
Eminent Member
 

Adding on to what was said, an effective way to manage time compression while mitigating risk if employing a scenario-based method that can evaluate the trade-offs faced when pressed for time. A project manager can approach the stakeholders or executives of a company and provide the regularly scheduled critical path for a project, and compare with with a "fast tracked" path, while highlighting the consequences that might arise. For example, to make a project get done quicker, getting started on production before a product passes all required regulatory problems can make the project get done quicker. However, this brings that obvious risk that if the product does not pass regulatory certifications, it would invalidate all the work the company started in production. The overlapping of different project stages to compress a project schedule may look enticing on paper, but highlighting the practical implications of such changes to executives can bring awareness to possible risks. If management insists that taking on the risk is in benefit to both the companies and the project, that brings up another topic for discussion. However in general, proposing a schedule with a scenario-based timeline can be an effective method to evaluate the trade-offs between time compression and potential risks.

 
Posted : 20/04/2025 8:08 pm
 ri62
(@ri62)
Posts: 39
Eminent Member
 

The Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) are essential tools for managing complex projects like medical device development. CPM focuses on identifying the longest sequence of dependent tasks to determine the minimum project duration. It is most effective when task durations are predictable and helps managers allocate resources efficiently. In contrast, PERT is used when task durations are uncertain, incorporating optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely time estimates to calculate expected timelines. This makes PERT especially valuable in the early stages of medical device projects where uncertainties are higher. Managing time under uncertainty involves regularly updating timelines as new data emerges and using buffers for high-risk activities. Integrating CPM and PERT allows project managers to track progress and adjust schedules proactively. In medical device development, regulatory approvals and testing phases often introduce variability, making these methods vital for risk-informed planning. Ultimately, these tools support timely product delivery without compromising safety or compliance.

 
Posted : 20/04/2025 8:47 pm
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