Your insight highlights a fundamental aspect concerning the difficulty of creating ambiguous estimations in project planning, especially for young enterprises entering unexplored territory. While historical data can provide useful insights for established businesses, startups and new initiatives frequently lack this resource.

In such instances, relying on the expertise of experienced professionals becomes critical. Consultations with industry veterans or subject matter experts can provide significant insights and assist in developing realistic estimates. Additionally, engaging experts that specialize in the relevant sector can provide vital insights and help navigate uncertainties.

Furthermore, taking a flexible approach to project planning is critical. Iterative planning techniques that allow for revisions in response to changing conditions can help to reduce the hazards associated with unclear estimations. Prioritize risk management methods and develop contingency plans to overcome unexpected issues.

There are different avenues that new companies could approach to develop these estimates. One of them is to consult experts within the industry, for example, subject matter experts (SMEs), who can provide valuable insight regarding the estimates. Moreover, these new companies could also conduct market research to help calculate the estimates as well as engage with regulatory agencies to gain insights into regulatory requirements and expectations which can lead to appropriate guidance for proper project assumptions and estimations. 

@vthampi
I'm uncertain about how much of my experience applies to your question, but in situations where records are unavailable and projects are unique, obtaining rough estimates for a project plan involves a combination of expert judgment, industry benchmarks, and mutual cooperation with individuals experienced in the field. Additionally, external consultants with relevant experience can be highly effective in providing their estimates and perspectives. Industry benchmarks, market research, and best practices can further contribute to forming a vague understanding of the project. The key is to gather as much relevant information as possible and, in the absence of historical records, engage with informed stakeholders to make well-informed assumptions.

It's definitely difficult to come up with exact cost estimates of a project. There are always unexpected changes or hurdles that present themselves and alter the initial project plan. However, I think there are reasonable ranges for what would be considered an appropriate budget estimate. For example, some line items were standard costs that you did not have as much wiggle room in changing. This is in the context of standard assays used in laboratories and some assays are frequently (sometimes exclusively) purchased from a single vendor and these types of items can be "more accurately" listed in a project budget estimate. However, you can't control if the vendor of the assay changes their price or discontinues their product entirely; this is where the assumed flexibility in a project budget lies. Moreover, there were certain items that couldn't be as accurately listed and we had to provide a rough estimate based on historical purchases in a related, but not identical, project setting. For example, this can happen when trying to allocate costs for compensating expert consultants, whom will have variable costs associated with their services. All in all, I think that the budget is a rough idea of how much things should cost and it expected that additional purchases will be necessary (within the limit of available resources).

I want to give my opinion about this subject with an example. A company is designing a new medical device, such as a specialized prosthetic limb. In their plan, they estimate the time that will be required to finish the research and development phase based on the complexity involved in the technology. This estimation is the foundation for resource allocation, budgeting, and setting milestones.

However, they understand that there are uncertainties, just like on a road trip. They recognize that unforeseen challenges, such as regulatory hurdles or unexpected technical issues, might appear during development. These challenges can be compared to "pit stops" or "traffic jams" on their project journey. Therefore, the initial estimate provides a roadmap, but the team remains flexible. They adjust the project timeline accordingly if they encounter a regulatory approval delay. In this case, the estimation serves as a dynamic guide, helping the team develop the product.

In general, estimates of budgets are usually obtained from thorough market research. Even if a product is not exactly the same as previous products, a rough estimate can be obtained by looking at factors such as market size, market share, average product cost, etc. In the case of a product in a completely new field/territory, the market research may not provide enough information necessary to make a precise estimation. In these cases, surveys can be performed and discussions should be had with experts in the new field to have a rough estimate of what a budget should be. In general, I believe in terms fo budget, it is better to overestimate than underestimate. If a project runs out of funding, it cannot move on until new funding is obtained (which can be extremely difficult without any market sales/results). 

While companies that have a broad history of projects could use historical data to provide these estimates, its important for experts in market research and project management to come up with estimates, especially because they will be provided to the sponsors of the project. I believe the lecture mentioned that sometimes even third party subject matter experts outside of the company could be consulted for these estimates because of their vast expertise on these matters. The project manager and relevant project team's job would be to consult these experts whenever needed so they can get an accurate timeline and cost estimate for each phase. It is important to note that although these are rough estimates, its still important to have a realistic estimate because company sponsors would not be thrilled with having to go extremely out of budget for time or money later on as the project progresses.  

Project plans often rely on a variety of techniques to obtain vague estimates. These include expert judgment, historical data, analogy, and high-level estimation techniques. Project managers and team members who have experience in similar projects are consulted for their expert opinions on the time, effort, and resources required for various project activities. Their estimates may not be precise, but they offer valuable insights based on their past experiences and expertise in the field. Additionally, analogous estimation involves using data from past projects that are similar to the current one to determine the duration and resources needed. Project managers can use historical projects with similar characteristics to make rough estimates for the current project. This is known as top-down estimation, where the initial estimates cover the entire project and are then broken down into more detailed estimates for specific tasks or work packages. Though these initial estimates may be imprecise due to limited information, they serve as a starting point for further planning.